In my humble opinion, Barack Obama ain't gonna win PA. It's just not gonna happen.
Obama sunk a lot of time and money into PA during the primary, and lost to Hillary 55-45%. The only regions to swing his way were Philadelphia and some of it's suburban counties, and mid-state. He won Delaware and Chester Counties south and west of the city. But he lost Montgomery and Bucks Counties west and north of Philly and also lost all of western PA, including around Pittsburgh. In the primary!
Obama MUST win the four key counties around Philly, plus Pittsburgh in order to have a prayer of taking PA from McCain on November 4. Obama is pouring a ton of money into PA right now, running full one-minute ads constantly, almost all of them being the type where he is on camera doing all of the talking (trying to appear personable).
Now, out here in Californians we don't use yard signs as much as we use bumper stickers. Your vehicle is king; it's your extended domain. Obama stickers are EVERYWHERE, and have been for quite some time. It started in early 2007 with the ubiquitous "Gore/Obama - The Dream Team" stickers. You would be lucky if you could find a Hillary sticker anywhere over the last year and a half. Yet, when the California primary came and went last June, Hillary thumped Obama by 10% (just like PA), 52-42%. Usually, it's the radicals who are the most "vocal" with their bumper stickers. The rest of the citizens tend to keep their mouths shut (lest they be scolded and scorned, or your car be keyed), and make their voices heard at the ballot box (the surprising success of Prop 13 and Prop 187 being two such examples).
Now, in Pennsylvania (particularly the Philly area), yard signs are the way people express their opinions, and unlike CA, they are not shy about it. If anyone who knows anything about Philly sports fans, this should come as no surprise. So, during my stay in the what's known as the "Main Line" in suburban Philly this past weekend I paid particular attention to these yard signs (this being just five weeks away from election day). I had driven through areas such as Upper Darby, Drexel Hill, Media, Havertown, and places in between (all in Delaware County, which Obama won against Hillary in the primary). In the sea of McCain and McCain/Palin yard signs I saw an exact total of just ONE Obama yard sign.
Obama is screwed.
In PA, they take their guns & religion seriously, and don't particularly like their values being mocked behind closed doors in San Francisco (Pennsylvanians have long memories). They also take the pro-life issue seriously. It's the reason why they replaced Santorum in the Senate with someone else who at least claimed to also be pro-life, and who is the son of a popular former two-term governor who was also pro-life.
I would almost say that I'd be shocked if Obama wins PA. Almost. Because I know that we're dealing with the MSM (mainstream media) who are completely in the tank for The Obamessiah, and have been for quite some time... as evidenced by this post by Captain Ed:
A READER AT A MAJOR NEWSROOM EMAILS: "Off the record, every suspicion you have about MSM being in the tank for O is true. We have a team of 4 people going thru dumpsters in Alaska and 4 in arizona. Not a single one looking into Acorn, Ayers or Freddiemae. Editor refuses to publish anything that would jeopardize election for O, and betting you dollars to donuts same is true at NYT, others. People cheer when CNN or NBC run another Palin-mocking but raising any reasonable inquiry into obama is derided or flat out ignored. The fix is in, and its working."
And then there's this from The Anchoress:
I have a couple friends who work in the MSM, too, and one of them tells me the newsroom is (exact words) “unbelievably cavalier” about any complaints viewers register about their reports, what they ignore, their bias or the way they edit Republicans vs. the way the treat Dems. “Cavalier” as in the fix is in and they don’t even have to pretend to care what half the country thinks or wants.
Think about it. Compared to what has been written and how the MSM have gone after, vilified and/or dismissed Sarah Palin, have you read or heard ANYTHING of investigative substance from the MSM (ABC, NBC/MSNBC, CBS, CNN, PBS, NY Times, LA Times, Washington Post, USA Today) going into Obama's background, friends, associates, dealings, affiliations, political record or lack of experience in depth? Aside from a glancing look into the Rev. Wright scandal, and the subsequent blanket dismissal of anything of the matter worthy of a fuller investigation, has the MSM done ANY true investigative journalism on The Obamessiah?
The Annenberg Foundation?
Former Fannie Mae CEO Jim Johnson?
Former Fannie Mae CEO Franklin Raines?
The over $120,000 from Fannie Mae to Obama in just three years?
The over 120 "Present" votes that he made in the Illinois State Senate?
His very vocal effort and vigorous opposition to the Baby Born Alive Act?
The lack of any legislative accomplishments or bipartisanship in the U.S. Senate?
I didn't think so.
Not when you have tomorrow nights VP debate moderated by a supposedly "unbiased" reporter who's written a glowing book about The Obamessiah.
And certainly not when you have the CNN crew behind the scenes going all oogly-googly over Baracky Baby like a bunch of teenage girls.